South Valley, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

076
FXUS65 KABQ 041202 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
602 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 539 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

- Significant snow is expected over the Northern Mountains,
  northeast and east central New Mexico today through Saturday,
  though some rain may mix with snow at low elevations at times.
  Minor to moderate travel impacts are likely. Confidence is high
  for widespread wetting precipitation.

- Cold, with near record low max temperatures for eastern New
  Mexico on Saturday. Temperatures throughout the state will be 15
  to 40 degrees below normal.

- A warming trend begins on Sunday and continues through mid week.
  Dry conditions will prevail through this period.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Rain and mountain snow showers continue to spread over New Mexico
today, bringing much needed precipitation to a majority of the area.
Some isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across eastern New
Mexico during the afternoon and evening today. Rain will transition
into snow Friday night as a potent cold front surges down the
eastern plains. The cold front will push through the gaps of the
central mountains, bringing a strong east canyon wind to the
Albuquerque metro area. Snow continues through much of the day
Saturday before tapering off Saturday night. Significant snowfall
accumulations are likely in the northern mountains and Raton Pass,
with lesser, but still impactful amounts likely across the eastern
plains. There is high confidence in widespread minor to moderate
impacts from falling and blowing snow. After this weekend, a warming
trend is in store for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Confidence is high that a significant winter storm will impact the
region over the next 36 hours with widespread hazardous weather,
especially for eastern NM. Rain, storms, dramatically colder temps,
snow, blowing snow, low visibility, and dangerous travel conditions
are all on the table. Folks planning travel across the region this
weekend should be prepared to encounter challenging conditions.

A 110kt polar jet sliding down the backside of a broad upper level
trough over the southwest CONUS will carve out a 552dm H5 low over
southern AZ this morning. Low level moisture is building westward
across eastern NM with light rain and low stratus spreading west to
the Pecos Valley. Meanwhile, top-down moistening over central and
western NM today will work with improving ascent and instability to
develop scattered to numerous rain/snow showers and a few storms.
This activity will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds.
Storms that develop over eastern NM will be in a better environment
to produce moderate rainfall rates and perhaps some hail.

Rain and snow will increase in coverage by late this afternoon over
northeast NM as a potent backdoor cold front enters the area. This
front will surge southwest toward the central mt chain this evening
with widespread snow and blowing snow in its wake. Gusts of 40 to 50
mph are expected over northeast and east-central NM with falling
temps and deteriorating travel conditions by Saturday morning. The
front will make it to the ABQ metro area around 8pm with strong
canyon winds likely tonight. Strong winds will develop southward to
Abo Pass and Carrizozo as well overnight and Wind Advisories have
been issued. A second area of snow is likely to develop along the
Cont Divide late tonight as the front produces low level convergence
beneath improving diffluence aloft. The main focus however will be
in the area from around Las Vegas to Clines Corners east/southeast
into the high plains as a large band of snow develops then pivots
southward toward Lincoln and Chaves counties. Snowfall rates may
exceed 1"/hr in this area with at least moderate travel impacts
possible for much of eastern NM. The entire Winter Storm Watch was
upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning and spread to nearby areas of
central and southeast NM. There will be additional Winter Weather
Advisories needed along the Cont Divide and perhaps some of the Rio
Grande Valley, Estancia Valley, and South-Central Highlands.

Snow is expected to continue into Saturday however confidence on
coverage and intensity is not quite as high as tonight. The upper
low is progged to shift east into west TX while another shortwave
moves south into the backside of the departing wave. This will keep
a broad circulation over NM with strong surface high pressure over
eastern NM. Easterly upslope flow into the central mt chain may keep
snow going for much of the day from near Las Vegas to the Sandias
and the Ruidoso area while showery precip develops over the northern
and western high terrain. Temps will be 25 to 40F below normal for
early April which will allow travel impacts to linger into the day,
especially around the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The 500mb upper low pushes eastward into TX Saturday night,
gradually bringing an end to the snowfall over the region through
Sunday morning. While only a dusting to a few tenths of an inch
are most likely during this time frame, remnant moisture and
upslope flow may be able to squeeze out a few more inches for the
northern mountains, specifically the Tusas Mountains. Cold
temperatures settle in Saturday night after the passage of the
cold front, with many locations on the eastern plains north of
Chaves County likely to have low temperatures at or below 20F.
Through Temperatures remain cool on the eastern plains for Sunday,
with highs likely in the mid 40s to low 50s F, though these highs
will be heavily influenced by remaining snowpack from the weekend
system. Temperatures across the rest of the state remain in the
50s to low 60s F.

Through the majority of next week, New Mexico remains under a ridge
of high pressure, with gradually increasing temperatures each day
and light breezy to locally windy conditions. Tuesday, at this time,
appears to be the breeziest day of the period with meridional flow
over the state and a lee surface low forming in southeast CO.
Outside of that, calmer and dry conditions are likely through much
of this week. By the end of the week, temperatures are favored to be
above average, with current NBM probabilities giving Roswell a 50%
chance to see 90F as a high next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The coverage of MVFR low cigs with areas of rain is increasing
northward over eastern NM this morning. Upper level low pressure
approaching from the west will allow the coverage of SHRA/TS to
increase over more of northern and western NM thru the afternoon.
A few showers will be capable of producing erratic, gusty winds
with graupel or small hail. A potent cold front will then surge
southwest into northeast NM before sunset and force rain over to
snow with widespread IFR developing in its wake. Snow will spread
south across more of eastern NM overnight with north wind gusts up
to 40KT, periods of moderate to heavy snow, and blowing snow with
low visibility at times. Canyon winds will also develop into the
Rio Grande Valley tonight with a greater than 60% chance gusts
will exceed 35KT at KABQ. East/southeast winds will shift west to
the Cont Divide after midnight and allow a second area of snow to
develop from near KFMN to KGUP. Widespread impacts will continue
over a large portion of the airspace into Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A winter storm impacting the region thru Saturday will deliver much
needed rain and snow to the entire area. Several inches of snow are
likely along and east of the central mt chain. Temps Saturday will
be 25 to 40F below normal which will help to keep snow on the ground
through Sunday morning before melting commences Sunday afternoon. A
ridge of high pressure is still expected to build into the region
next week with warming temperatures and lower humidity. There may be
periodic breezy winds across the eastern plains however green up is
likely to begin from the recent rain and snow as temps warm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54  32  51  27 /  20  40  60  10
Dulce...........................  51  22  47  19 /  60  70  60  20
Cuba............................  50  25  41  19 /  50  80  70  30
Gallup..........................  47  23  46  14 /  60  50  70  10
El Morro........................  45  24  41  19 /  70  70  70  20
Grants..........................  50  25  44  15 /  60  70  70  10
Quemado.........................  47  25  45  19 /  80  50  70  10
Magdalena.......................  51  28  39  23 /  40  70  70  10
Datil...........................  47  25  40  20 /  60  60  70  10
Reserve.........................  52  22  53  18 /  70  40  70  20
Glenwood........................  57  26  58  24 /  50  20  70  30
Chama...........................  44  17  39  15 /  80  80  70  20
Los Alamos......................  50  26  37  24 /  70  90  80  20
Pecos...........................  49  23  36  19 /  80  90  90  30
Cerro/Questa....................  45  21  37  16 /  80  90  70  10
Red River.......................  37  15  28  11 /  90  90  80  20
Angel Fire......................  40  16  30   9 /  90 100  90  20
Taos............................  49  22  40  14 /  80  90  80  20
Mora............................  45  19  33  13 /  90  90  90  20
Espanola........................  57  29  46  22 /  70  90  60  20
Santa Fe........................  52  26  38  23 /  80  90  90  30
Santa Fe Airport................  55  28  41  22 /  70  90  70  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  32  43  30 /  50  80  80  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  32  46  28 /  40  60  60  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  60  33  48  27 /  30  50  60  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  58  33  47  28 /  30  60  60  20
Belen...........................  61  33  48  23 /  20  50  60  20
Bernalillo......................  59  32  48  28 /  40  80  70  20
Bosque Farms....................  61  32  48  24 /  30  60  60  20
Corrales........................  59  32  48  28 /  40  70  60  20
Los Lunas.......................  61  33  48  25 /  30  60  60  20
Placitas........................  55  30  43  28 /  50  80  80  20
Rio Rancho......................  58  32  47  28 /  40  70  60  20
Socorro.........................  62  35  48  27 /  20  50  60  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  25  36  23 /  60  90  90  30
Tijeras.........................  54  27  39  24 /  60  90  80  30
Edgewood........................  54  24  37  20 /  60  80  80  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  22  37  15 /  60  80  80  20
Clines Corners..................  48  19  30  17 /  70  90  90  20
Mountainair.....................  53  24  35  18 /  50  90  80  20
Gran Quivira....................  53  24  34  18 /  50  80  80  20
Carrizozo.......................  56  30  39  22 /  40  70  80  20
Ruidoso.........................  49  23  32  19 /  60  80  90  30
Capulin.........................  40  17  28  13 /  80  90  80  10
Raton...........................  45  20  34  13 /  80  90  80   5
Springer........................  47  22  34  12 /  80  90  80   5
Las Vegas.......................  47  19  31  14 /  80  90  90  20
Clayton.........................  49  21  36  18 /  80 100  80  10
Roy.............................  48  22  32  16 /  80 100  90  10
Conchas.........................  56  27  35  20 /  80 100 100  20
Santa Rosa......................  54  25  32  18 /  80  90 100  20
Tucumcari.......................  55  27  35  20 /  80  90 100  30
Clovis..........................  54  26  35  20 /  90  90 100  50
Portales........................  55  27  36  19 /  90  90 100  50
Fort Sumner.....................  56  26  35  18 /  70  90 100  30
Roswell.........................  56  32  39  26 /  70  90 100  30
Picacho.........................  53  27  35  21 /  60  80 100  20
Elk.............................  53  25  37  20 /  60  80  90  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Saturday
for NMZ212-221-223-228>232.

Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM MDT Saturday for
NMZ219.

Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MDT
Saturday for NMZ210-211-213>215-227.

Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Saturday
for NMZ226-233>237-239.

Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ220-225.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...42

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated on or about Friday, April 4.