South Valley, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

929
FXUS65 KABQ 250549 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1149 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1134 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025

- Isolated storms may develop in far eastern New Mexico each
  afternoon through Friday. A few storms may produce hail and/or
  damaging wind gusts.

- Storms will likely expand in coverage westward on Saturday, with
  isolated storms as far west as the central mountain chain. There
  is a low chance of flash flooding in the eastern plains.

- The risk of rapid fire spread increases across western New
  Mexico on Friday, with critical fire weather conditions becoming
  most widespread on Sunday as winds strengthen. Blowing dust and
  hazardous crosswinds may impact travel.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Isolated strong storms may develop this evening and tomorrow
afternoon across far eastern New Mexico, with large hail and gusty
winds being the main threats. Storm coverage expands westward to the
central mountain chain on Saturday, with much of the area likely to
receive beneficial rainfall. There is a low chance of flash flooding
across far eastern NM from locally heavy rainfall and repeated
rounds of storms. Southwest winds increase on Sunday, returning
heightened chances of rapid fire spread across much of the area.
Temperatures decrease on Monday to near to below average with the
passage of a Pacific cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Current observations show that dry westerly flow has overtaken much
of New Mexico, with dewpoints in the eastern plains about 10 to 15
degrees lower than they were at this same time yesterday. As a
result, this has pushed the dryline and severe weather threat
farther east into the central Texas panhandle where a Cu field is
currently developing. Similar to the last few nights, convection
across the border will aid in pushing moist air back over the Caprock
and once again create low clouds in the morning. Overnight, a
backdoor cold front will begin to make its way through northeast New
Mexico, bringing in a modified cooler and wetter airmass. The front
will have reached the central mountains by the early morning hours
tomorrow, with winds then shifting south behind the frontal
boundary wrapping around the southern edge of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Chances for rain increase along and behind the front,
with increased forcing along the leading edge creating a
thunderstorm or two.

On Friday morning, New Mexico will be pieced apart by three
separate airmasses. Western and central areas will see the return
of warm and dry south to southwesterly flow. In eastern New
Mexico, the cooler backdoor airmass will begin to combine with the
warmer and moist Gulf airmass from the south. Storms look to
develop along this frontal boundary in east-central New Mexico,
with thunderstorms more likely in southeastern areas where there
is greater instability. Guidance indicates storms developing along
the NM-TX border late into Friday evening, with locally heavy
rainfall rates at times, generally totaling up to half an inch
along the I-40 corridor between Tucumcari and Amarillo. This
convection east of the central mountain chain will serve to give a
second push of the backdoor front through the mountain gaps into
the Rio Grande Valley, leading to a 15 to 25 kt gap wind for the
Albuquerque and Santa Fe metro areas in the early morning hours on
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025

A wet and stormy Saturday appears likely across the eastern plains
of New Mexico. The dryline that has consistently wobbled right
around the TX/NM border pushes westward up to the central mountain
chain. Ample moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the 50s and RHs
remaining around 60-70% through the day. Along with that, SBCAPE
values are forecast to exceed 500 J/kg across much of the entire
eastern plains, with NBM probabilities exceeding 50% for the
region. Along and south of Interstate 40, SBCAPE values have a
good chance to exceed 1000 J/kg. This sufficient destabilization,
mixed with increasing bulk shear of up to 40kts, support
development of stronger thunderstorms across the region. SPC has
painted a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for this area, and
it aligns with current thinking. Any storms that do develop will
come with a threat of gusty winds and large hail. A potential
limiting factor for storms would be the development and
persistence of morning low stratus, which could delay/limit
afternoon destabilization and therefore storm coverage. PWAT
values are likely to be above the 90th percentile across much of
the area, potentially exceeding the 99th percentile in the
afternoon/early evening hours of Saturday according to NAEFS
quartile rankings. This continues to support beneficial rainfall
amounts across the region, though a threat for flash flooding will
exist in areas that receive multiple rounds of storms. The threat
of training storms also indicates that higher, 90th percentile
rainfall outcomes are favored over lower percentile outcomes, with
rainfall amounts of over 1" having up to a 30% chance of
occurrence with NBM probabilities. Amounts up to 2" are not
entirely out of the question as well, but would require repeated
rounds of storms.

Upper level southwest winds ramp up moving into Sunday, with work to
push the moisture well off to our east, leaving very low storm
chances in place, mainly through southeast NM. The focus for Sunday
is strengthening mid-level winds, with 700mb winds forecast to get
up to 35-45kt, with pockets of 50kt winds having a low to moderate
chance of occurring. Well mixed surface layers will allow these
winds to transfer to the surface, creating widespread windy
conditions. Thankfully, at least in eastern NM, many locations will
have received beneficial precipitation the day before, so blowing
dust concerns are low. However, in locations that receive little to
no rain, especially much of the Rio Grande Valley, blowing dust will
be a concern, potentially creating hazardous travel conditions.
Difficult to potentially hazardous crosswinds are also likely. A
Pacific front cools off temperatures for Monday, then a weak trough
moving across the region may be able to squeeze out some light
precipitation across the northern areas, with areas above 9,000ft
potentially seeing light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025

A moist backdoor cold front will slide southwest into northeast NM
while low level return flow backs into east-central and southeast
NM overnight. Widespread MVFR to local IFR cigs will develop over
northeast NM and east of the Pecos River thru sunrise. Cloud cover
will be slow to erode thru noon and may linger for the entire day
over northeast NM. Meanwhile, southerly winds will increase over
central and western NM with gusts of 25 to 35kt common after 2pm.
Areas of BLDU are possible with MVFR vsbys at times. A few storms
may fire up by late afternoon over far eastern NM. This activity
may become strong around the Caprock before moving east into west
TX. Moisture will surge west Friday evening with widespread MVFR
low cigs developing east of the central mt chain. A moderate gap
wind is likely to develop between KABQ and Santa Fe after 9pm.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Dry westerly flow has overtaken most of New Mexico this afternoon,
which has kept relative humidities in the low teens to single digits
and creating elevated fire weather conditions. A backdoor cold front
will bring in a cooler and more moist airmass into northeast New
Mexico tonight, reducing fire weather concerns but creating poor
ventilation behind the front. Chances for precipitation increase
within the moist modified airmass in eastern New Mexico, as well as
an isolated thunderstorm or two ahead of the front and in southern
areas where there is greater instability. Western and central parts
of the state will see increased southerly flow during the afternoon
as stronger winds aloft mix down to the surface. These winds look to
funnel through the lower and middle Rio Grande Valley, gusting as
high as 35 kts. This will result in a few hour of critical fire
weather conditions during the afternoon for central New Mexico
before winds decrease around sunset. Winds will then shift east
overnight as a secondary surge from the backdoor front makes its way
through the gaps in the central mountain chain. Western and central
areas will remain dry and breezy on Saturday, while eastern New
Mexico will be too moist for any fire concerns other than some dry
lightning along the central mountain chain.

Widespread critical to locally extreme fire weather will develop
Sunday as a potent upper level trough swings north of NM. Southwest
wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, single digit humidity, above normal
temps, ERC values above the 75th percentile, and extensive drought
will coincide across central and western NM. There is high
probabilities for low humidities combined with winds in excess of 20
mph from Clines Corners west to the Continental Divide on Sunday.
Rain over eastern NM from Saturday will help to limit the overall
extent of receptive fuels Sunday. Flow will then shift more westerly
for Monday, creating widespread critical fire weather again over
eastern NM, with downsloping winds warming and drying the
environment even further, elevating the risk of rapid fire spread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  41  79  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  31  75  33  76 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  37  74  38  74 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  30  75  31  75 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  37  73  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  32  78  33  79 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  36  74  35  74 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  45  76  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  39  73  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  33  77  32  78 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  39  82  39  83 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  33  69  34  68 /   0   0   0  10
Los Alamos......................  47  73  47  71 /   0   5  10  30
Pecos...........................  42  70  42  70 /   0  10  30  50
Cerro/Questa....................  40  71  41  70 /   0  20  20  30
Red River.......................  34  58  35  60 /   0  30  30  40
Angel Fire......................  22  61  34  63 /   0  30  30  50
Taos............................  33  74  37  73 /   0  10  20  30
Mora............................  37  65  39  66 /   0  20  40  60
Espanola........................  39  81  42  79 /   0   5  10  30
Santa Fe........................  45  74  47  73 /   0  10  20  40
Santa Fe Airport................  41  78  46  76 /   0   5  10  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  81  53  81 /   0   0   5  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  48  83  50  83 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  45  85  47  85 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  48  83  50  83 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  42  84  42  85 /   0   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  46  84  49  84 /   0   0   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  41  84  43  85 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  47  84  49  85 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  42  84  45  85 /   0   0   0   5
Placitas........................  49  79  51  79 /   0   0   5  20
Rio Rancho......................  48  84  50  83 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  47  87  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  45  75  47  76 /   0   5  10  30
Tijeras.........................  45  77  47  78 /   0   5  10  30
Edgewood........................  40  77  45  77 /   0   5  10  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  35  79  38  78 /   0   5  10  30
Clines Corners..................  41  70  42  69 /   0  10  30  50
Mountainair.....................  42  77  44  77 /   0   0   5  20
Gran Quivira....................  42  77  41  77 /   0   0   5  20
Carrizozo.......................  49  82  48  80 /   0   0  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  48  76  46  74 /   0   5  20  30
Capulin.........................  38  58  41  63 /   0  40  60  60
Raton...........................  37  65  42  68 /   0  40  40  40
Springer........................  36  68  44  68 /   0  30  40  50
Las Vegas.......................  38  67  44  66 /   0  20  40  60
Clayton.........................  48  59  46  66 /   5  30  70  70
Roy.............................  41  66  46  66 /   0  20  60  70
Conchas.........................  45  74  50  73 /   0  20  70  90
Santa Rosa......................  45  75  50  74 /   0  10  50  80
Tucumcari.......................  48  74  50  71 /   0  20  80  90
Clovis..........................  52  78  54  71 /   0  20  70  90
Portales........................  50  84  53  72 /   0  20  70  90
Fort Sumner.....................  46  82  54  76 /   0  10  60  80
Roswell.........................  52  89  58  84 /   0   5  40  60
Picacho.........................  48  85  49  81 /   0   5  20  40
Elk.............................  46  84  47  82 /   0   5  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for NMZ106.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for NMZ106-109-121-124.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...42

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.